We’ve had multiple clients reach out this week and ask a similar question: “With everything going on in the world, do I need to change my investments?”
I understand there are sad and scary things happening in the world today.
Let me share some perspectives that I am thinking about today.
Reasons To Be Positive
-Over the past year, there has been net selling of equities (money going out), and yet, the S&P 500 has produced gains.
-Huge drop in inflation over the past year
-High cash balances. What happens if the money flows back into the stock market?
-Unemployment is historically low
-The U.S. consumer continues to spend
-Corporate earnings have been higher over the past year. Note: the predicted earnings recession never happened.
-Many Americans have a fixed-rate mortgage of less than 5% and are unaffected by higher interest rates.
-Many large well-capitalized companies have locked in their debt at low rates for an extended period.
Companies and CEOs became cautious to prepare for hard times that never came to fruition.
The Long-Term Outlook
As a financial planner, I focus on stewarding capital for decades and not days.
It was so challenging to get people to invest in 2009 and 2010; the pain of the Great Recession from 2007-2009 paralyzed the investment decision-making process of too many of us.
Too many began investing once the coast was clear (the market was significantly higher).
We are all hardwired to avoid pain. It’s human nature.
The best way to earn the full return of the stock market is to always be in the stock market.
The full return of the stock market is never given, but it is ALWAYS earned.
You earn the return by acknowledging the cost of admission:
1/The S&P 500 drops an average of 15% every year
2/The S&P 500 drops an average of 30% or more approximately every five years.
While not a guarantee, knowing that the worst 30-year rolling return of the S&P 500 is 7.8% per year gives me the confidence to stay the course.
The Big Conclusion
Keep faith in the market. Be patient. The market won’t go up in a straight line. Follow a disciplined approach to maintaining and building wealth.
If you or someone you’re close to could use help aligning their finances and establishing a financial plan, don’t hesitate to contact us; we’re accepting new clients and eager to help.
Cheers,
Nic
