Dollars and Diagrams

It Is ALL Noise


It Is ALL Noise

It is difficult to be a long-term, goal-focused, plan-driven investor if you have access to television, the internet, or email. We keep seeing negative headlines… war, recession, mortgage rates, fed policy, etc… I am here to tell you that there has always been a reason not to invest, and there always will be. However, it is ALL noise.


Let me try my best to give you some perspective… Since 1970, there have been 9 recessions.

Technically, the first of these recessions started in 1969.

The S&P 500 ended 1969 at 92.06.

As I write this note, the S&P is hovering near 3,600.

Some back-of-the-napkin math tells me that the market today, after 9 recessions and a painful start to 2022 tells me that the market has gone 40 times!

Why does this happen? How is this possible?

One word … EARNINGS.

The S&P 500 earned $6.10 in 1969.  Full-year 2022 estimates put the S&P 500 earnings at $225.

Roughly 40 times higher.  This is NOT a coincidence.

During these 53 years, there have been three times that your account value would have been cut by at least 50%.

Nobody will wave a white flag to let us know that the pain of this current market environment is over, and they never will.

In other words, history is our guide. Soon, the tide will turn, and we must be invested when that day comes!

[Remember when the market bottomed in March 2009?  Nobody saw that coming.]

In addition, it is not easy to stay invested in high-quality companies and tune out the noise. But, that is the only way we know to earn the full long-term return of the market.

–Nic & Jeff

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This material is general information and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.


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