Why Easy Markets Create Overconfidence

Look, it’s supposed to be hard.

When I first started my health & fitness journey in May 2024, the workouts were extremely challenging. I was sore for what felt like forever.

However, I stuck with it and after several weeks, my body adapted, the workouts became more manageable and the soreness faded.

Over the past 18 months of my fitness revival, I’ve had periods where I felt like I was coasting.

WHAM!

New workout. Higher intensity. Pain!

“It was deja vu all over again.” –Yogi Berra

Investing is no different.

There are periods where it is easy to get complacent as you simply get to watch your account values soar higher.

You’re feeling great, can’t miss, you might even be the next Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch.

WHAM!!

-Market correction
-Geopolitical event
-The “can’t miss” stock misses
-Your concentrated stock bet is quickly a bust

As a financial planner, my job is largely rooted in providing you with the financial equivalent of Vitamin C (microdoses of protecting against complacency and overconfidence).

We do this by:
-Rebalancing
-Building low-cost diversified plans
-Allocation specific dollars to specific goals
-Building dollar based date specific financial plans

The unexpected WHAM! is always coming and we never know when. However, we can proactively take steps toward ensuring that our financial plan adapts and our long-term growth within the plan continues.

*If you take anything away from this email:*  If it was easy, everybody would be in ideal shape and everyone would be financially independent.

Working together, let’s stay disciplined and work the plan.


–Nic

Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.​ Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

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