“Optimism is the only realism.” – Nick Murray
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit 49.8 in April 2026, which is the weakest on record.
Can you imagine that consumer sentiment today is lower than…
- World War Two
- The Great Secession
- The Pandemic
- Inflation Surges
We all know the current key drivers (tariff uncertainty, Iran conflict, rising energy prices, etc…).
The Great Disconnect
Unemployment is near historic lows, median household incomes continue to rise, and most fascinating is that overall corporate America is thriving.
Let’s take a look at some companies in the S&P 500®
- 84% have beaten earnings per share estimates
- 81% have beaten revenue estimates
- YoY earnings growth is 13.2% – marking the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digits earnings growth
But wait, there’s more…
- Full year 2026 estimates predict earnings growth of 18.6%
- First Trust forecasts earnings growth about 17% in 2026 & 2027
So who knows what will happen next. I’m certainly not in the prediction game, nor willing to change our investment philosophy based merely upon forecasts.
However, back to the consumer sentiment point, I believe we’re inundated with negative information because it is scientifically proven to grab attention and keep eyeballs glued to the screens—and outlets are incentivized to do this.
To our current clients, along with those reading this that we’re not quite lucky enough to be helping yet:
As a goals-based long-term investor and firm believer of low-cost diversified portfolio construction, I can’t tell you how optimistic I am that the world is so pessimistic.
Let them, and we’ll keep doing us.
Stay disciplined. Work the plan.
–Nic
