The Nielsen Family loaded up for their BIG family vacation last week. We drove the Honda Odyssey down to Florida and spent time at Disney World and Legoland. About 45 minutes into the trip, our youngest child uttered the phrase all parents dread, “Are we there yet?”
As you might imagine, this was a theme that re-occurred on the trip to Florida and the trip back home to South Carolina.
The Nielsen’s had a memorable trip as we enjoyed water parks, fireworks, and rollercoasters.
However, my wife got sick on our first day of vacation and is still ill eight days later.
Two of our three kids have had flu-like symptoms.
Over the past few weeks, in conversations with families like yours, we have received similar types of questions regarding investing:
“What happens next?”
Essentially, is the worst over? Are we OK? Are we there yet?
As I write this note, the S&P 500 is currently at 4,119.
Sandwiched right in the middle of the 2022 annual high of 4,796.56 and the yearly low of 3,577.03
Currently, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than the low and 14% below the high.
According to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, of 425 companies already reporting earnings for Q1 2023, 78% have beaten estimates.
The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows investors are the most bearish since last December.
We continue to be optimistic that the world is so pessimistic.
We will not forecast what will happen next because nobody knows.
The market could go down 50% or up 100% from this moment.
However, we are long-term investors who believe the ultimate long-term direction of investing in companies is up.
Why do we believe that the stock market ultimately goes higher?
☑ All companies have rational management teams.
☑ Companies will steward capital towards profitable endeavors.
Real-World Examples
- Amazon strategically invested heavily in Amazon Web Services to reduce its reliance on its e-commerce business.
- Apple invested in developing the Apple Watch even though investors were skeptical.
- Mcdonald’s closed its restaurants in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
- Ford announced it was discontinuing the production of most of its cars to focus on trucks, SUVs, and electric vehicles.
Mutual Alignment
When we invest in companies, we sit on the same side of the table as management.
We both have a vested interest in companies maintaining and increasing profitability.
Key Takeaways
Like my trip to Florida, we had some beautiful moments, but it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. There were some bad moments!
Funding your financial plan over multiple decades may cause some pain.
Have faith in a diversified mix of management teams that will continue to steward capital toward profitable endeavors.
Remember, have patience. Fundamentals ultimately prevail.
Maintain the discipline to stay the course.
If any of your friends or family have financial questions, we are happy to be a sounding board for them. If they are important to you, they are important to us.
–Nic & Jeff
We are a full-service financial advisory company that allows you to make a one-page plan for your money and prepare for your future. Learn more about what we do and how we can help you here.
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* Content in this material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
